Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 160.660453 187.684201 219.076179 258.533831 307.221432 365.876891 442.720553
2025-11-16 123.197181 155.101507 195.876270 252.789788 331.779442 440.023240 604.111373
2025-11-23 101.113524 134.039176 179.034874 246.809150 349.600158 505.494669 772.188055
2025-11-30 92.527428 128.326290 180.247265 264.084110 402.323431 633.820450 1082.009747
2025-12-07 82.699592 118.746976 173.503224 266.950614 431.945976 732.405327 1381.301820
2025-12-14 75.693716 112.076829 169.675348 273.062264 467.647017 851.733976 1777.220957
2025-12-21 68.790598 104.472301 162.940108 272.477509 490.368310 952.460976 2184.691147
2025-12-28 66.166403 103.343265 166.645291 291.137664 555.169488 1165.094338 3009.758228
2026-01-04 63.143922 101.081552 167.914978 305.233180 614.193104 1388.262261 4041.565252
2026-01-11 60.041831 98.253021 167.662070 316.094883 668.990396 1624.782557 5340.108845
2026-01-18 56.637704 94.461496 165.023534 321.348690 711.901958 1848.627228 6838.280495
2026-01-25 53.176706 90.173880 160.829972 322.361486 744.437115 2057.683697 8542.041238
2026-02-01 49.126981 84.513515 153.487122 315.598174 756.522994 2214.751591 10269.820003
2026-02-08 45.509760 79.343351 146.557970 308.710314 766.979845 2375.612640 12335.241826
2026-02-15 42.245777 74.545727 139.830937 301.133002 773.487027 2527.711141 14680.903959
2026-02-22 41.720134 75.111036 144.582237 323.316477 879.801490 3163.740808 22706.842650
2026-03-01 39.801728 72.656332 142.398118 327.006973 927.574043 3581.285164 30409.180919
2026-03-08 38.335372 70.992632 141.783338 334.877679 993.312775 4149.225811 42954.545382
2026-03-15 36.430996 68.232540 138.318803 334.124302 1027.739900 4584.859603 56617.203053
2026-03-22 36.154728 68.925077 143.055468 358.218414 1169.028330 5825.899419 99294.170100
2026-03-29 35.502269 68.729435 145.625482 376.484675 1296.439338 7173.254039 171501.519780
2026-04-05 34.643542 67.991801 146.760231 390.597763 1413.770233 8651.675946 297662.097085
2026-04-12 33.481843 66.463778 145.706613 397.435723 1501.584500 10052.175073 496940.377149